“Bone-chilling
reading” wasn’t a term that got applied to many books about the
internet at the time of the first dot com boom. But law professor
Cass Sunstein’s 2001 book Republic.com was a work quite
outside new economy boosterism and made for worrying reading. Dressed
as a study of changing patterns of news media consumption,
Republic.com drew a vivid picture of a future in which the
cultural effects of digital technologies turned around and savaged
the rational, open minded scientific tradition that had created them.
In Sunstein’s
vision net users of the future are offered ever more customised media
– endless football commentary for football fans, endless flyfishing
news for fly-fishing fans. The immediate personal benefit to
individuals is enormous, they never again have to spend time
consuming news or entertainment of a sort that doesn’t interest
them (no more Antiques Roadshow before the news!). But what seems
like an unmitigated good , warned Sunstein, could permanently damage
the fabric of democratic societies.
What happens when
someone of moderately extreme views ceases to be exposed in any way
to mainstream media, asks Sunstein? In fact, what happens when
relatively moderate people, or those who are simple uninterested in
politics stop consuming anything but their preferred sort of news?
Once you start thinking about it, the dismal scenario more or less
writes-itself: a world in which parental prejudices, instead of being
challenged by exposure to new knowledge, are reinforced 100% by all
news and entertainment that a child receives. Where people simply
aren’t aware that other reasonable opinions on topics of all sorts
even exist. The pattern is relentless – people indicate through
their viewing or browsing habits that they are more interested in one
sort of media coverage, their media adapts and never gives them
anything else. They slowly become unaware that there is anything
else, and when they finally meet people of differing opinions they
can only assume that they are deranged, evil, or somehow non-human.
And we all know what starts to happen when groups of people decide
that other people aren’t people after all.
So goes the theory,
and a persuasive one it is too. One of the most discussed flash
animations on the web over the last year was EPIC 2014 a
‘future history’ describing the way in which personalised media
combined with micro-publishing leads to a world where Google and
Amazon more or less destroy the existing news media market. By 2014
it envisions a world where for the vast majority of users mass
personalisation means a news media intake which is “narrow, shallow
and sensational” and where much of what is reported is simply
untrue.
In 2004 a pair of
academics at the University of Michigan decided that it was time to
test the theory of internet media consumption leading to a more
narrowed and blinkered view of politics. What Paul Resnick and Kelly
Garrett found was not expected.
By comparing a
weighted sample of the general public against a similarly weighted
sample of internet users, they tested the hypothesis that voters at
the 2004 US General election would choose to learn more positive
facts about the candidate they supported than they would learn about
their opponent. The conclusions were robust:
“At a time when
political deliberation seems extremely partisan and when people may
be tempted to ignore arguments at odds with their views, internet
users are not insulating themselves in information echo chambers.
Instead, they are exposed to more political arguments than
non-users.”
It is this final observation that seems
the most surprising – can it really be that more internet users who
can select from any news media they want prefer not to consume media
that supports their points of view? Apparently so: 28% of non
internet users expressed a preference for news sources that
explicitly shared their political point of view, only 18% of
broadband internet users said the same thing. Furthermore in his
dissertation Kelly Garrett found that whilst news consumers were
slightly less likely to read stories that appeared to contradict
their own views, once they started reading them they would read them
for longer the more they disagreed with the opinions in the articles.
This is the Howard Stern phenomena online – famously people who
hated Stern listened to him more hours per week than people who
didn’t mind him.
This may seem surprising or even
impossible to anyone who has seen analysis of political blogs over
the last couple of years, where maps have been drawn of the
incestuousness of the US political blogging community. They show two
huge clusters of dots, one red, one blue. The blue cluster is made up
of hundreds of blue Democratic sites linking primarily to other
Democratic sites and the red cluster of similar activity amongst
Republican blogs.
One study by US researchers Lada Adamic and Natalie
Glance discovered that 91% of links on political blogs they studied
contained links to other blogs within the same political community.
Looking exclusively at the top 20 most read political blogs from each
side of the partisan aisle, they also found that only 15% of posts
were ‘cross citations’ to blogs of different political
persuasions.
But it is precisely in these small
numbers of cross-citations that we can understand the flaw in
Sunstein’s vision, and the root of the unexpected poll findings by
the Michigan academics. The 15% of cross citations represent
precisely the open-ness, and the dependence on opposition opinions
that fuel the political blogging community, and news media online
generally. It is very hard to argue into silence, and political rants
are always easier to build on the rejection of an opponent’s
statements or actions. Political blogs may link primarily to their
own kind, but they still provide thousands of instantaneous links to
opposing views – this is the crucial difference between the
internet and books or newspapers. A newspaper, magazine or television
channel may attempt to be neutral and contain diverse opinions, but
ultimately it cannot provide the forbidden thrill of infuriating,
genuine opposition, unedited and unfiltered, just a click away.
In a study of the British political
landscape I co-authored with Chris Lightfoot earlier this year, one
of our observations was that Guardian readers were well over 98% were
to the left of center on our axes. There is clearly strong political
self selection even in the relatively highly educated readers of this
newspaper – even amongst an audience that knows value of balance
and neutrality. Self selection of news consumption will continue
online and offline, presumably so long as people have political
opinions. Ultimately it is perhaps that oldest of sentiments, the
car-crash mentality, the desire to see dangerous, ghastly things that
secretly thrill us that will save us from the nightmare vision of
Cass Sunstein’s Republic.com.
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